LIVE ELECTION COMMENTARY
Hear what Taha Abrar has to say on the election as it happens. Link to a Live Commentary on the Presidential Election, straight from the sofas of Butler Bar:
Election Commentary 4pm-5am
Tuesday November 6, 2012
Hello and welcome to the Josephine Butler Scholarly Journal’s US Presidential Election Blog!
Ever since Rick Santorum’s withdrawal all but secured Governor Mitt Romney’s ascension to the Republican Party nomination, the fight to be the President of the United States has captivated the US and much of the watching world. From 47%-gate to the Laughing Joe Biden Meme, it’s not an accident that this is the one foreign election that demands your attention. It is, after all, an election to a post often described as The Most Powerful Man On Earth.
Bob Dorough got it all wrong. It isn’t 3, rather 270, that is the magic number. That is the number of electoral college votes (ECVs) needed by either candidate to win the Presidency. Some handy links will be provided if you’re a newbie to the US electoral system, but important to remember throughout tonight is that the ECVs, not the popular vote, that is the deciding factor.
So there we go; are we to have a 45th President of the United States? Or has number 44 still got 4 more years in him? Soon, we will know the answer. All the real action on the BSJ Live Blog will kickoff later on today, but for now, sate yourselves with understanding the slightly complicated system by which the US elects its Commander-in-Chief and Head of State.
Here is a video from the Economist on the way the Electoral College works:
Another video now, on the key swing states that will decide the election. For your delectation:
That’s it for now, but BSJ’s Live Election Blog will be back later tonight. See you then for some real life drama, with you all night!
I do recommend getting a nap or two in before things start getting interesting later on tonight. Now you all know what I’m going to be doing, feel free to join me (figuratively speaking of course). Let’s all go catch some z’s
Welcome back to BSJ’s Live US Presidential Election Blog! We’ll be with you throughout the night, and hopefully into the early hours with the latest news and all the way up until we know whether we’ll be celebrating a victory for the Grand Old Party and Romney or the Democrats and Obama.
This election is going to come down to between 8-11 key “swing” states. A bare knuckle street fight is sure to ensue, with both candidates criss crossing these states in a last ditch attempt to mobilise their support
If you like a heavy dose of comedy with your politics, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert will be on live. Both are hilarious, so if you can find a stream which is showing their coverage, find it!
I will be doing my best to reply to all your messages tonight guys, so please send in any and all queries and I will do my best to answer them either publicly or privately!
The email is just above.
History shows that no Republican nominee has ever lost Ohio and won the Presidency. Even George Bush won it in 2000. I would not rate Romney’s chances at all if he didn’t carry Ohio
In truth, the “special” relationship between Britain and the US hasn’t been the same since Obama came to office. Romney’s rhetoric with regard to Iran has been much more volatile and straight out of the hawkish Bush Administration’s playbook. In effect, Romney would rely on international backing for any invasion/aerial attack on Iran so would need Britain’s support, especially on the UN Security Council. This would require a return to the cosy relations enjoyed during the noughties, but whether that is in the best interests of Britain and her interests, I would sincerely doubt.
The bare knuckle street fight I was referring to earlier:
According to some, Virginia could be a good indicator on the way this contest may end up.
Seems like Democratic strategist James Carville is confident, predicting that the “ass whuppin’ cometh”.
Have a look at this rather useful graphic. I know I will be checking it throughout the nighthttp://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/results
Here is a concise Fox News look at a handful of ways the election could go
This is the first Presidential election with the Supreme Court ratified Super-PACs. These are essentially private and supposedly independent organs that campaign on behalf of either candidate. Although their impact is currently unknown, their donations have certainly helped power the anti Obama sentiment, with pro Romney Super Pacs (mainly Restore Our Future) out-raising pro Obama ones.
Will Kendall (who’s excellent article you can read herehttp://jbscholarlyjournal.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/ohio-holds-the-key/) believes that if anything, Super Pac’s drive apathy. Having spent some time in the US with Organising for America and gauged some opinion on them, Will feels that Super Pac’s irritate a number of people as the ads they back are very brutal and attacking.
Michigan (16), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15) are the 11 states to which this election could all boil down to. In brackets are the number of electoral college votes each state has.
In my opinion, if Obama takes Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, he has this election in the bag. However, if Romney takes Ohio, everything gets a whole lot closer. “Squeaky bum time” to quote the great Sir Alex Ferguson.
50,000+ votes counted in Indiana, 15,000+ in Kentucky, both voting heavily in favour of Romney. Obamaniacs, do not fret, neither are key to an Obama win, and currently less than 1% of counties are reporting their results.
The Huffington Post thinks that there are 4 states where it is simply too close to call; Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado
There has been an interesting question raised by a few people now; what if a more moderate Republican candidate has been chosen? More specifically, if John McCain had run again, would he have been more likely to win the nomination this time around? Alas, no way to check alternate universes yet.
Our dear Butler friend, Bryn Coombe, has just informed me that his friends in the US are predicting a close Ohio victory for Mitt Romney… Could this Presidential election be as close as the infamous 2000 one?
Dear [Jack G King],
If you think New Hampshire is intriguing, you should have a look at how Nebraska and Maine divvy up their Electoral College Votes
Of course, it is always hard to tell this early who has the edge and where, especially when no counties in these critical swing states are reporting yet.
So where is the 44th POTUS, and where is his challenger? Obama has headed to where his political career began, in his ex-Senate seat of Chicago, whilst Romney is in Boston, Massachusetts, where he was Governor.
For me, you can’t go wrong with a bit of Dimbleby on election night.
The Guardian Live Blog right now reports that CNN’s Peter Hamby has heard “that the last Romney internal tracker had Obama up in Ohio by five percentage points.” Intriguing..
Wednesday November 7, 2012
Looks like both Florida’s (and historically Ohio’s too) polling stations will be open for a while pic.twitter.com/Z9RbnWlA
The first electoral college votes are in! Vermont re-elects Barack Obama. 3 ECVs for Obama! That said, Kentucky and Indiana have been called as red states, and their combined 19 ECVs go to Mitt Romney.
Thank you to Carmen Horrocks for that last link.
As BBC News has reported, polls in Ohio are scheduled to close at 00:30 GMT. That said, if there are people in the queue for the polls, convention dictates that those polling stations will remain open until the last person in that queue has voted.
Many news reports concurring on one thing in particular; the fact that Virginia is far too close to call. Reports suggest that Virginia is tied at 49%-49%.
With just over 7,000 votes (1%) of precincts reporting in Virginia, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 56%-43%
Polls to close in Florida around 01:00 GMT
Orangeburg County, South Carolina with 4% of the precincts reports, is strongly voting in favour of Obama. The state is easily predicted to go to Romney however.
Extremely close in Florida, Romney ahead on the popular vote 50%-49.4%. Only one county reporting an Obama victory here so far, Orange County.
According to The Thick of It, State of Play and Veep writer Armando Iannucci says that the Democrats he knows are feeling “cautiously cocky”.
West Virginia has been called for Mitt Romney, pocketing its 5 electoral college votes (ECVs)
One exit poll from the key swing state of Ohio placing Obama with 51% and Romney with 48%..
With 8 counties reporting in Florida, Obama leads with 50.2% to Romney’s 49.1%
Presidents Twitter feed is urging people to stay in line so they can register their vote.
Though now West Virginia and South Carolina have been called for Romney (pushing his ECV tally to 33 to Obama’s 3), West Virginia’s Senate seat has gone to Joe Manchin (D). Very interesting win for the Democrats, unexpected certainly.
Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina have all been deemed to close to call by Fox News
Fancy a go at predicting which states will end up where, or having a look at what Romney would need to carry should he lose Ohio?
With 2 counties reporting in Ohio, Romney leads 61.4% to 37.2%
We’re back! Due to being on a free trial, we have created a whole separate link. Let’s hope this lasts as long.
7 states have been called for Obama, giving him 56 Electoral College Votes, whereas Romney has won 5 and has 40 ECVs.
Dear [The Coombe warrior]I believe Obama will register a narrow victory tonight, especially if Ohio and Florida are called for him.
Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, Illinois and the District of Columbia have now been called for Obama, giving him 64 ECVs
Oklahoma, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Indiana and Kentucky are all called for Romney, giving him 82 ECVs
All of the above are from NBC News predictions
Dear [The Coombe warrior]In my view, 275 ECVs for Obama, 263 for Romney, with Romney carrying Florida but losing Ohio. I stress that I am no expert however, so be generous with your judgement!
New Jersey has been called for Obama
Exit polls still tied in Virginia, though the Huffington post calls a Romney lead with 27% of precincts reporting
Sky News projects Romney winning Arkansas
BBC News projecting 78 ECVs for Obama to 76 ECVs for Romney at present
For all those wrestling fans out there, Linda McMahon loses the race for Connecticut’s senate seat to Chris Murphy. Slobberknocker.
Romney leads in North Carolina with 27% reporting, 50.1% to 49.1%
With 39% of precincts reporting in Florida, Obama leads 50.6% to 48.6%. If he wins Florida, in my opinion, he wins the election.
According to Sky News, 62% of precincts are in and Obama leads 50% to 49%.
Seems like the North Eastern seaboard is staunchly Democrat, from Maine to Maryland.
14 states close polling at 02:00AM
In the race for the Senate supermajority (60 seats) the Democrats and Republicans are tied at 41 seats each.
The Midwest and South (barring Florida) have gone to Romney; he’s up to 154 ECVs and Obama to 123
States called for:
VTStates called for:
It’s tightened up in Florida, Obama now leading 49.7% to Romney’s 49.5%.
BBC News reporting that Romney and Obama are tied at 49.6%.
That’s in Florida, ladies and germs.
Fox News reporting that two candidates are tied at 50% in Florida, with 76% precincts reporting
House of Representatives will stay Republican, US media reporting, meaning that if Obama wins, he will have to deal with a Congress that has a large Tea Party contingent. Much of the disappointment with Obama has been because of the lack of game changing policies that Republican Congressmen have successfully filibustered out of the debate room. In the long run, history may not look as kindly at Obama’s term in office as it could have done had there been a Democrat majority in the Senate and Congress
A few US networks are calling Pennsylvania and New Mexico for Obama. Pennsylvania is the big one, holding 20 electoral college votes.
Well this is what the rest of the world wants..http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_md11a4dArf1qzuknoo1_500.gif
The Guardian and Huffington Post calling Wisconsin for Obama…. with less than 1% of precincts reporting. If that holds, both candidates are tied on 154 ECVs
According to CNN, with 81% of precincts reporting, Florida is tied. Could be in for the very long haul here tonight
Get in touch guys! I know it’s late, but if you have any queries please feel free to ask
With 82% of precincts in, Fox News reports Obama leads 50% to 49%.
Again, that’s in the key state of Florida. That said, even if Romney wins Florida, I think that he has to take Ohio to become the 45th President of America
Sky News reporting that New Hampshire has been called for Obama.
In the key state of Ohio, the Attorney General has been reported as saying that there is a very good chance that 10 days could pass before the Buckeye state declares a winner
In the race for the Senate, Democrats lead by 44 seats to 41, with two independents
Obama has closed the gap in Virginia a tad. With 58% of precincts reporting, Romney leads Obama 51.5% to 47%
According to the Huffington post, Minnesota is leaning toward Obama, and more importantly, the swing states of Colorado and Florida leaning toward Obama. The latter, with 85% of precincts reporting, now is showing a 0.2% lead for Obama. Ohio too, with 35% reporting, shows a 5.3% lead Obama lead
As I typed that, New Hampshire and Minnesota have been called for Obama
If Colorado, which is reporting 16% of precincts at the moment, goes to Obama, Romney may have to start penning a concession speech to go alongside his victory speech
NBC News is reporting that Obama has 162 ECV’s to Romney’s 153. Big claim made in the Jo Butler bar by a certain Matt Gillett, who says Obama will remain ahead for the rest of the night, possibly even winning by 20 points
Polls have closed in Idaho, Montana, Iowa, Utah, Oregon and Nevada
Montana and Utah have been called for Romney
Although Obama is leading in the Electoral College, Romney is leading the popular vote.
Ottawa County, which has correctly predicted every winner since 1964, and Obama has WON that bellwether county. Hamilton County, a traditionally Republican county, is also leaning to Obama
Obama has Florida within his grasp, leading there with 49.8% to Romney’s 49.3% and 87% of precincts reporting
Don’t forget, Obama still has that big banker in California, which means he is already over 210 ECVs.
Currently, 19 states are going to Romney and 16 states going to Obama
Romney needs to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio to stand a chance, according to BBC News pundits
“The chances are slim to none, and slim just left the building”, BBC News
Only 4 states are yet to close their polls and that list consists of Alaska, Hawaii, California and Washington State.
CBS projecting Iowa is going to Obama, and Romney’s window is closing very fast.
Palin, on Fox News, is talking like Obama has won the election. Says she is “very disappointed”, and blames Bain Capital ads for Romney’s fall
It seems like the Democrats have a strangehold on many of the seats in the Senate race; currently losing only in Nebraska
Indiana, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Connecticut, Florida and Ohio all seemingly going to the Democrats
Almost 50% of precincts are reporting a win in Ohio for Obama. If that result holds, it’s almost gameover for Romney
Of the four tossup states, Virginia and North Carolina are seemingly going to Romney, whereas Florida and Colorado
As Lal Chadeesingh has pointed out, the close votes have to be over 0.5% in difference to not warrant a recount. Currently, Obama’s lead is 0.6% in Florida with 89% of precincts reporting
Arizona seems to be going to Romney, 18% in and a lead of 11.8%
46 Senate seats to the Dems, 42 to the Republicans, 2 Independents
In a rather interesting development, Joe Kennedy III, the grandson of Robert Kennedy, has won the race to Congress in the 4th Congressional District of the Massachusetts house.
A welcome back into the political fray to the Kennedy Family.
Now a 0.7% lead in Florida, with 90% of precincts reporting.
And that has dramatically changed, 91% declared and the lead cut to 0.3%
Arizona has been called for Romney with it’s 11 ECVs
Dear [Guest]Wisconsin is only reporting 17% of precincts as declared. Perhaps Door and Green County, the two precincts with a 100%, have such a massive swing that they are indicating an Obama hold? In truth, I’m not entirely sure
In effect, Obama only needs 42 more ECVs in order to secure the Presidency for a second term. Again, that is assuming that California’s 55 ECVs go to Obama. In effect, Florida and Ohio would win it.
Apologies for using “in effect” twice there, the time of day is starting to tell on my body clock
North Carolina has been called for Romney, but the Denver Post predicts an Obama win in Colorado
As expected, California has been called for Obama
244 ECVs to 173 ECVs to Obama
Idaho has been called for Romney
That makes it 244 ECV’s to 193 Romney
ABC sources reporting that Jeb Bush has told the Romney campaign that they have lost Florida. If that is true, then Obama wins the 2012 Presidential election
Washington State and Hawaii have also been called for Obama
With 87% of precincts declared, Romney is ahead by 1% in Virginia. That said, BBC News pundits say that the remaining counties will be called for Obama
Missouri is called for Romney, 10 electoral college votes but normally calls the winner too.
Sky News just retweeted Larry Sabato, of Sabato’s Crystal Ball fame, who says Virginia will head to Obama
CNN again projects Iowa for Obama
Oregon has been called for Obama, and Fox News reporting that Ohio has been won too. That means that Obama has been elected for 4 more years
MSNBC calling Obama the winner of the 2012 US Presidential Election. Most US networks are calling an Obama win!
Even Fox News!
When will Romney concede is the next question?
To avoid the potential claims of an illegitimate victory, Obama must now aim for the popular vote.
There we have it. Here in Butler Bar, where we waited for the BBC to call it, cheers broke out as David Dimbleby confirmed that Obama wins another term in office after Ohio is called for the President.
And I will call it a night there. Well done to Barack Hussein Obama on winning a second term in office. Though there is talk of a recount (especially on Fox News), it is unlikely to be a request that shall be acquiesced. Though Florida and Virginia are yet to be called, as are a handful of other states, Obama has passed the the magic 270 Electoral College Votes necessary to win the Presidency.It’s been a somewhat manic pleasure to be live blogging for you tonight, I hope you enjoyed it. I will now head off to watch Romney’s concession and Obama’s victory speech, urging you to do the same. The rest of the world can breathe a sigh of relief, and I’d like to personally thank common sense prevailing in the “Greatest Country in the World”.This is Taha Abrar, signing off.
What do YOU think about the election? Who are you hoping will become America’s next President?